2026-10-09

Desk take

What we think of this print

Close print for 2026-10-09. VIX 15.41 (low) and SPY 778.54 set the tape. Hybrid desk: the scanner names the setup, the model grades that same print, and published conviction is the blend. The model cannot add a name that did not fire.

Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN): scanner what happened — AMZN traded cheaper than its industry peers on trailing P/E at 82/100 (setup 100). Why it printed: Trailing P/E 21.1 is below the internet retail / big-box peer median 28.6 (26% cheaper).; Market cap still sits above the peer median ($2.83T vs $350.4B).; Cap is more than 2× the peer median — quality/size filter.; VIX regime is low (15.41).; 21d relative strength vs SPY is 1.5%.; Relative volume 0.87x.. Invalidation: Multiple re-rates up to the peer median P/E, or a daily close back below SMA200; stop ~250.63.. Same-setup analogs on 21 names (n=266, n_eff=84.8, 95% CI 48–68%) show a 58% 21-session net hit rate against a 59% base rate, average +3.1%, vs SPY +1.3%. The 95% interval includes 50%, so this is the desk's narrative setup rather than a demonstrated edge. LLM confirm at 82/100: Analogs and RSI both support a reset rather than a chase. Risk: Multiple re-rates up to the peer median P/E, or a daily close back below SMA200; stop ~250.63..

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA): scanner what happened — NVDA traded cheaper than its industry peers on trailing P/E at 99/100 (setup 100). Why it printed: Trailing P/E 32.7 is below the semiconductors peer median 44.5 (26% cheaper).; Market cap still sits above the peer median ($5.54T vs $992.7B).; Cap is more than 2× the peer median — quality/size filter.; VIX regime is low (15.41).; 21d relative strength vs SPY is 2.3%.. Invalidation: Multiple re-rates up to the peer median P/E, or a daily close back below SMA200; stop ~217.91.. Continuation of the 2026-10-08 alert, not a new one — this is print 6 of one run: the same call has gone out 5 times since 2026-10-02 across 7 calendar days, most recently on 2026-10-08. Today is not a fresh signal; the setup was already true when the desk last printed it. The analog below measures the first session of a run, so its hit rate belongs to 2026-10-02, not to today. Same-setup analogs on 21 names (n=266, n_eff=84.8, 95% CI 48–68%) show a 58% 21-session net hit rate against a 59% base rate, average +3.1%, vs SPY +1.3%. The 95% interval includes 50%, so this is the desk's narrative setup rather than a demonstrated edge. LLM confirm at 99/100: Analogs and RSI both support a reset rather than a chase. Risk: Multiple re-rates up to the peer median P/E, or a daily close back below SMA200; stop ~217.91..

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM): scanner what happened — TSM traded cheaper than its industry peers on trailing P/E at 99/100 (setup 100). Why it printed: Trailing P/E 32.7 is below the semiconductors peer median 64.6 (49% cheaper).; Market cap still sits above the peer median ($2.35T vs $992.7B).; Cap is more than 2× the peer median — quality/size filter.; VIX regime is low (15.41).; 21d relative strength vs SPY is 3.2%.; Relative volume 0.84x.. Invalidation: Multiple re-rates up to the peer median P/E, or a daily close back below SMA200; stop ~430.48.. Continuation of the 2026-10-08 alert, not a new one — this is print 3 of one run: the same call has gone out twice since 2026-10-07 across 2 calendar days, most recently on 2026-10-08. Today is not a fresh signal; the setup was already true when the desk last printed it. The analog below measures the first session of a run, so its hit rate belongs to 2026-10-07, not to today. Same-setup analogs on 21 names (n=266, n_eff=84.8, 95% CI 48–68%) show a 58% 21-session net hit rate against a 59% base rate, average +3.1%, vs SPY +1.3%. The 95% interval includes 50%, so this is the desk's narrative setup rather than a demonstrated edge. LLM confirm at 99/100: Analogs and RSI both support a reset rather than a chase. Risk: Multiple re-rates up to the peer median P/E, or a daily close back below SMA200; stop ~430.48..

Micron Technology (MU): scanner what happened — MU traded cheaper than its industry peers on trailing P/E at 94/100 (setup 93). Why it printed: Trailing P/E 13.6 is below the semiconductors peer median 69.6 (80% cheaper).; Market cap still sits above the peer median ($1.16T vs $773.1B).; VIX regime is low (15.41).; 21d relative strength vs SPY is 2.5%.. Invalidation: Multiple re-rates up to the peer median P/E, or a daily close back below SMA200; stop ~937.15.. Continuation of the 2026-10-08 alert, not a new one — this is print 6 of one run: the same call has gone out 5 times since 2026-10-02 across 7 calendar days, most recently on 2026-10-08. Today is not a fresh signal; the setup was already true when the desk last printed it. The analog below measures the first session of a run, so its hit rate belongs to 2026-10-02, not to today. Same-setup analogs on 21 names (n=266, n_eff=84.8, 95% CI 48–68%) show a 58% 21-session net hit rate against a 59% base rate, average +3.1%, vs SPY +1.3%. The 95% interval includes 50%, so this is the desk's narrative setup rather than a demonstrated edge. LLM confirm at 94/100: Analogs and RSI both support a reset rather than a chase. Risk: Multiple re-rates up to the peer median P/E, or a daily close back below SMA200; stop ~937.15..

Apple Inc. (AAPL): scanner what happened — AAPL pulled back to its 20-day average inside an uptrend at 92/100 (setup 90). Why it printed: Price above SMA50 and SMA50 above SMA200 (bullish regime).; VIX regime is low (15.41).; RSI_14=56.1 is a reset, not a chase.; Close is 0.4% from SMA20 (pullback/tag).; 21d relative strength vs SPY is 0.4%.; Relative volume 0.95x.. Invalidation: Stop ~323.15 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50.. Continuation of the 2026-10-07 alert, not a new one — this is print 4 of one run: the same call has gone out 3 times since 2026-10-02 across 7 calendar days, most recently on 2026-10-07. Today is not a fresh signal; the setup was already true when the desk last printed it. The analog below measures the first session of a run, so its hit rate belongs to 2026-10-02, not to today. Same-setup analogs on 21 names (n=1021, n_eff=114.8, 95% CI 51–68%) show a 60% 21-session net hit rate against a 59% base rate, average +2.8%, vs SPY +1.5%. The 95% interval includes 50%, so this is the desk's narrative setup rather than a demonstrated edge. LLM confirm at 92/100: Analogs and RSI both support a reset rather than a chase. Risk: Stop ~323.15 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50..

Meta Platforms, Inc. (META): scanner what happened — META pulled back to its 20-day average inside an uptrend at 78/100 (setup 90). Why it printed: Price above SMA50 and SMA50 above SMA200 (bullish regime).; VIX regime is low (15.41).; RSI_14=56.8 is a reset, not a chase.; Close is -0.1% from SMA20 (pullback/tag).; 21d relative strength vs SPY is 8.8%.; Recent volume dry-up — less chase, more coil.. Invalidation: Stop ~674.49 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50.. Continuation of the 2026-10-08 alert, not a new one — this is print 2 of one run: the same call went out on 2026-10-08. Today is not a fresh signal; the setup was already true when the desk last printed it. The analog below measures the first session of a run, so its hit rate belongs to 2026-10-08, not to today. Same-setup analogs on 21 names (n=1021, n_eff=114.8, 95% CI 51–68%) show a 60% 21-session net hit rate against a 59% base rate, average +2.8%, vs SPY +1.5%. The 95% interval includes 50%, so this is the desk's narrative setup rather than a demonstrated edge. LLM confirm at 78/100: Analogs and RSI both support a reset rather than a chase. Risk: Stop ~674.49 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50..

Applied Materials (AMAT): scanner what happened — AMAT traded cheaper than its industry peers on trailing P/E at 90/100 (setup 88). Why it printed: Trailing P/E 46.5 is below the semiconductor equipment peer median 54.8 (15% cheaper).; Market cap still sits above the peer median ($402.4B vs $399.0B).; VIX regime is low (15.41).; 21d relative strength vs SPY is 8.9%.. Invalidation: Multiple re-rates up to the peer median P/E, or a daily close back below SMA200; stop ~469.66.. Continuation of the 2026-10-08 alert, not a new one — this is print 4 of one run: the same call has gone out 3 times since 2026-10-06 across 3 calendar days, most recently on 2026-10-08. Today is not a fresh signal; the setup was already true when the desk last printed it. The analog below measures the first session of a run, so its hit rate belongs to 2026-10-06, not to today. Same-setup analogs on 21 names (n=266, n_eff=84.8, 95% CI 48–68%) show a 58% 21-session net hit rate against a 59% base rate, average +3.1%, vs SPY +1.3%. The 95% interval includes 50%, so this is the desk's narrative setup rather than a demonstrated edge. LLM confirm at 90/100: Analogs and RSI both support a reset rather than a chase. Risk: Multiple re-rates up to the peer median P/E, or a daily close back below SMA200; stop ~469.66..

Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL): scanner what happened — GOOGL traded cheaper than its industry peers on trailing P/E at 72/100 (setup 82). Why it printed: Trailing P/E 17.7 is below the interactive media peer median 17.9 (1% cheaper).; Market cap still sits above the peer median ($2.06T vs $9.9B).; Cap is more than 2× the peer median — quality/size filter.; VIX regime is low (15.41).; 21d relative strength vs SPY is 3.0%.. Invalidation: Multiple re-rates up to the peer median P/E, or a daily close back below SMA200; stop ~334.88.. Same-setup analogs on 21 names (n=266, n_eff=84.8, 95% CI 48–68%) show a 58% 21-session net hit rate against a 59% base rate, average +3.1%, vs SPY +1.3%. The 95% interval includes 50%, so this is the desk's narrative setup rather than a demonstrated edge. LLM confirm at 72/100: Analogs and RSI both support a reset rather than a chase. Risk: Multiple re-rates up to the peer median P/E, or a daily close back below SMA200; stop ~334.88..

ASML Holding (ASML): scanner what happened — ASML pulled back to its 20-day average inside an uptrend at 80/100 (setup 75). Why it printed: Price above SMA50 and SMA50 above SMA200 (bullish regime).; VIX regime is low (15.41).; RSI_14=52.4 is a reset, not a chase.; 21d relative strength vs SPY is 2.8%.; Relative volume 0.83x.. Invalidation: Stop ~1676.68 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50.. Same-setup analogs on 21 names (n=1021, n_eff=114.8, 95% CI 51–68%) show a 60% 21-session net hit rate against a 59% base rate, average +2.8%, vs SPY +1.5%. The 95% interval includes 50%, so this is the desk's narrative setup rather than a demonstrated edge. LLM confirm at 80/100: Analogs and RSI both support a reset rather than a chase. Risk: Stop ~1676.68 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50..

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD): scanner what happened — AMD pulled back to its 20-day average inside an uptrend at 76/100 (setup 70). Why it printed: Price above SMA50 and SMA50 above SMA200 (bullish regime).; VIX regime is low (15.41).; RSI_14=57.2 is a reset, not a chase.; 21d relative strength vs SPY is 18.0%.. Invalidation: Stop ~560.46 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50.. Same-setup analogs on 21 names (n=1021, n_eff=114.8, 95% CI 51–68%) show a 60% 21-session net hit rate against a 59% base rate, average +2.8%, vs SPY +1.5%. The 95% interval includes 50%, so this is the desk's narrative setup rather than a demonstrated edge. LLM confirm at 76/100: Analogs and RSI both support a reset rather than a chase. Risk: Stop ~560.46 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50..

Lam Research (LRCX): scanner what happened — LRCX pulled back to its 20-day average inside an uptrend at 76/100 (setup 70). Why it printed: Price above SMA50 and SMA50 above SMA200 (bullish regime).; VIX regime is low (15.41).; RSI_14=51.2 is a reset, not a chase.; 21d relative strength vs SPY is 4.3%.. Invalidation: Stop ~291.76 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50.. Same-setup analogs on 21 names (n=1021, n_eff=114.8, 95% CI 51–68%) show a 60% 21-session net hit rate against a 59% base rate, average +2.8%, vs SPY +1.5%. The 95% interval includes 50%, so this is the desk's narrative setup rather than a demonstrated edge. LLM confirm at 76/100: Analogs and RSI both support a reset rather than a chase. Risk: Stop ~291.76 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50..

KLA (KLAC): scanner what happened — KLAC pulled back to its 20-day average inside an uptrend at 76/100 (setup 70). Why it printed: Price above SMA50 and SMA50 above SMA200 (bullish regime).; VIX regime is low (15.41).; RSI_14=54.6 is a reset, not a chase.; 21d relative strength vs SPY is 7.6%.. Invalidation: Stop ~179.82 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50.. Same-setup analogs on 21 names (n=1021, n_eff=114.8, 95% CI 51–68%) show a 60% 21-session net hit rate against a 59% base rate, average +2.8%, vs SPY +1.5%. The 95% interval includes 50%, so this is the desk's narrative setup rather than a demonstrated edge. LLM confirm at 76/100: Analogs and RSI both support a reset rather than a chase. Risk: Stop ~179.82 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50..

Texas Instruments (TXN): scanner what happened — TXN pulled back to its 20-day average inside an uptrend at 76/100 (setup 70). Why it printed: Price above SMA50 and SMA50 above SMA200 (bullish regime).; VIX regime is low (15.41).; RSI_14=55.7 is a reset, not a chase.; 21d relative strength vs SPY is 6.9%.. Invalidation: Stop ~267.42 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50.. Same-setup analogs on 21 names (n=1021, n_eff=114.8, 95% CI 51–68%) show a 60% 21-session net hit rate against a 59% base rate, average +2.8%, vs SPY +1.5%. The 95% interval includes 50%, so this is the desk's narrative setup rather than a demonstrated edge. LLM confirm at 76/100: Analogs and RSI both support a reset rather than a chase. Risk: Stop ~267.42 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50..

Intel (INTC): scanner what happened — INTC pulled back to its 20-day average inside an uptrend at 76/100 (setup 70). Why it printed: Price above SMA50 and SMA50 above SMA200 (bullish regime).; VIX regime is low (15.41).; RSI_14=43.4 is a reset, not a chase.; 21d relative strength vs SPY is 1.6%.. Invalidation: Stop ~92.91 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50.. Continuation of the 2026-10-06 alert, not a new one — this is print 2 of one run: the same call went out on 2026-10-06. Today is not a fresh signal; the setup was already true when the desk last printed it. The analog below measures the first session of a run, so its hit rate belongs to 2026-10-06, not to today. Same-setup analogs on 21 names (n=1021, n_eff=114.8, 95% CI 51–68%) show a 60% 21-session net hit rate against a 59% base rate, average +2.8%, vs SPY +1.5%. The 95% interval includes 50%, so this is the desk's narrative setup rather than a demonstrated edge. LLM confirm at 76/100: Analogs and RSI both support a reset rather than a chase. Risk: Stop ~92.91 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50..

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT): scanner what happened — MSFT pulled back to its 20-day average inside an uptrend at 65/100 (setup 55). Why it printed: Price above SMA50 and SMA50 above SMA200 (bullish regime).; VIX regime is low (15.41).; 21d relative strength vs SPY is 5.9%.. Invalidation: Stop ~511.39 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50.. Continuation of the 2026-09-11 alert, not a new one — this is print 2 of one run: the same call went out on 2026-09-11. Today is not a fresh signal; the setup was already true when the desk last printed it. The analog below measures the first session of a run, so its hit rate belongs to 2026-09-11, not to today. Same-setup analogs on 21 names (n=1021, n_eff=114.8, 95% CI 51–68%) show a 60% 21-session net hit rate against a 59% base rate, average +2.8%, vs SPY +1.5%. The 95% interval includes 50%, so this is the desk's narrative setup rather than a demonstrated edge. LLM haircut at 59/100: RSI is firm, not a reset — haircut versus the scanner grade. Risk: Stop ~511.39 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50..

Qualcomm (QCOM): scanner what happened — QCOM pulled back to its 20-day average inside an uptrend at 65/100 (setup 55). Why it printed: Price above SMA50 and SMA50 above SMA200 (bullish regime).; VIX regime is low (15.41).; RSI_14=44.4 is a reset, not a chase.. Invalidation: Stop ~160.83 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50.. Continuation of the 2026-10-05 alert, not a new one — this is print 3 of one run: the same call has gone out twice since 2026-10-02 across 7 calendar days, most recently on 2026-10-05. Today is not a fresh signal; the setup was already true when the desk last printed it. The analog below measures the first session of a run, so its hit rate belongs to 2026-10-02, not to today. Same-setup analogs on 21 names (n=1021, n_eff=114.8, 95% CI 51–68%) show a 60% 21-session net hit rate against a 59% base rate, average +2.8%, vs SPY +1.5%. The 95% interval includes 50%, so this is the desk's narrative setup rather than a demonstrated edge. LLM confirm at 65/100: Analogs and RSI both support a reset rather than a chase. Risk: Stop ~160.83 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50..

Analog Devices (ADI): scanner what happened — ADI pulled back to its 20-day average inside an uptrend at 65/100 (setup 55). Why it printed: Price above SMA50 and SMA50 above SMA200 (bullish regime).; VIX regime is low (15.41).; 21d relative strength vs SPY is 9.7%.. Invalidation: Stop ~383.83 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50.. Same-setup analogs on 21 names (n=1021, n_eff=114.8, 95% CI 51–68%) show a 60% 21-session net hit rate against a 59% base rate, average +2.8%, vs SPY +1.5%. The 95% interval includes 50%, so this is the desk's narrative setup rather than a demonstrated edge. LLM confirm at 65/100: Scanner structure and tape line up. This is still a research print, not a forecast. Risk: Stop ~383.83 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50..

Marvell Technology (MRVL): scanner what happened — MRVL pulled back to its 20-day average inside an uptrend at 65/100 (setup 55). Why it printed: Price above SMA50 and SMA50 above SMA200 (bullish regime).; VIX regime is low (15.41).; 21d relative strength vs SPY is 18.6%.. Invalidation: Stop ~246.09 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50.. Same-setup analogs on 21 names (n=1021, n_eff=114.8, 95% CI 51–68%) show a 60% 21-session net hit rate against a 59% base rate, average +2.8%, vs SPY +1.5%. The 95% interval includes 50%, so this is the desk's narrative setup rather than a demonstrated edge. LLM confirm at 65/100: Scanner structure and tape line up. This is still a research print, not a forecast. Risk: Stop ~246.09 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50..

Overall: scanner and model agree on the named prints. They can still fail; the analog table is research history, not a forecast.

RESEARCH ONLY — not advice.

Scanner names what happened on the tape. The model grades that observation. Hybrid conviction is what publishes. The model cannot add a name that did not fire. Research only — not a timing call.

add reminders

Five add reminders

Live add reminders: K1, K2, K3, K4, and K5. Exclusive listing, strongest first. Not a named setup. Does not score. Now vs 52w is close versus the 252-session high. This-name median is that same drawdown on this ticker's prior fires of the same gate.

Quiet today: K1 Weekly RSI (fear) · K2 Weekly RSI (elevated) · K3 Daily RSI (fear) · K4 Daily RSI (elevated) · K5 Daily RSI (calm) · K6 Weekly RSI (industry stress) · K7 Weekly RSI (industry elevated) · K8 Daily RSI (industry stress) · K9 Daily RSI (industry elevated) · K10 Daily RSI (industry calm) · K11 Weekly RSI · K12 Daily RSI.

Quiet watch: no desk name is approaching. VIX must already be 30.