2026-10-07

Desk take

What we think of this print

Close print for 2026-10-07. VIX 15.01 (low) and SPY 777.26 set the tape. Hybrid desk: the scanner names the setup, the model grades that same print, and published conviction is the blend. The model cannot add a name that did not fire.

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA): scanner what happened — NVDA traded cheaper than its industry peers on trailing P/E at 100/100 (setup 100). Why it printed: Trailing P/E 33.9 is below the semiconductors peer median 46.3 (27% cheaper).; Market cap still sits above the peer median ($5.73T vs $1.05T).; Cap is more than 2× the peer median — quality/size filter.; VIX regime is low (15.01).; 21d relative strength vs SPY is 3.7%.. Invalidation: Multiple re-rates up to the peer median P/E, or a daily close back below SMA200; stop ~226.25.. Continuation of the 2026-10-06 alert, not a new one — this is print 4 of one run: the same call has gone out 3 times since 2026-10-02 across 5 calendar days, most recently on 2026-10-06. Today is not a fresh signal; the setup was already true when the desk last printed it. The analog below measures the first session of a run, so its hit rate belongs to 2026-10-02, not to today. Same-setup analogs on 21 names (n=265, n_eff=84.8, 95% CI 47–68%) show a 58% 21-session net hit rate against a 59% base rate, average +3.0%, vs SPY +1.3%. The 95% interval includes 50%, so this is the desk's narrative setup rather than a demonstrated edge. LLM haircut at 94/100: RSI is firm, not a reset — haircut versus the scanner grade. Risk: Multiple re-rates up to the peer median P/E, or a daily close back below SMA200; stop ~226.25..

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM): scanner what happened — TSM traded cheaper than its industry peers on trailing P/E at 100/100 (setup 100). Why it printed: Trailing P/E 34.1 is below the semiconductors peer median 65.5 (48% cheaper).; Market cap still sits above the peer median ($2.45T vs $1.05T).; Cap is more than 2× the peer median — quality/size filter.; VIX regime is low (15.01).; 21d relative strength vs SPY is 6.1%.. Invalidation: Multiple re-rates up to the peer median P/E, or a daily close back below SMA200; stop ~451.18.. Same-setup analogs on 21 names (n=265, n_eff=84.8, 95% CI 47–68%) show a 58% 21-session net hit rate against a 59% base rate, average +3.0%, vs SPY +1.3%. The 95% interval includes 50%, so this is the desk's narrative setup rather than a demonstrated edge. LLM haircut at 94/100: RSI is firm, not a reset — haircut versus the scanner grade. Risk: Multiple re-rates up to the peer median P/E, or a daily close back below SMA200; stop ~451.18..

Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN): scanner what happened — AMZN traded cheaper than its industry peers on trailing P/E at 79/100 (setup 98). Why it printed: Trailing P/E 20.9 is below the internet retail / big-box peer median 28.6 (27% cheaper).; Market cap still sits above the peer median ($2.80T vs $350.4B).; Cap is more than 2× the peer median — quality/size filter.; VIX regime is low (15.01).; Relative volume 0.94x.. Invalidation: Multiple re-rates up to the peer median P/E, or a daily close back below SMA200; stop ~248.62.. Same-setup analogs on 21 names (n=265, n_eff=84.8, 95% CI 47–68%) show a 58% 21-session net hit rate against a 59% base rate, average +3.0%, vs SPY +1.3%. The 95% interval includes 50%, so this is the desk's narrative setup rather than a demonstrated edge. LLM confirm at 79/100: Analogs and RSI both support a reset rather than a chase. Risk: Multiple re-rates up to the peer median P/E, or a daily close back below SMA200; stop ~248.62..

Micron Technology (MU): scanner what happened — MU traded cheaper than its industry peers on trailing P/E at 98/100 (setup 98). Why it printed: Trailing P/E 14.4 is below the semiconductors peer median 73.9 (80% cheaper).; Market cap still sits above the peer median ($1.23T vs $826.2B).; VIX regime is low (15.01).; 21d relative strength vs SPY is 7.3%.; Relative volume 1.17x.. Invalidation: Multiple re-rates up to the peer median P/E, or a daily close back below SMA200; stop ~996.22.. Continuation of the 2026-10-06 alert, not a new one — this is print 4 of one run: the same call has gone out 3 times since 2026-10-02 across 5 calendar days, most recently on 2026-10-06. Today is not a fresh signal; the setup was already true when the desk last printed it. The analog below measures the first session of a run, so its hit rate belongs to 2026-10-02, not to today. Same-setup analogs on 21 names (n=265, n_eff=84.8, 95% CI 47–68%) show a 58% 21-session net hit rate against a 59% base rate, average +3.0%, vs SPY +1.3%. The 95% interval includes 50%, so this is the desk's narrative setup rather than a demonstrated edge. LLM confirm at 98/100: Analogs and RSI both support a reset rather than a chase. Risk: Multiple re-rates up to the peer median P/E, or a daily close back below SMA200; stop ~996.22..

Applied Materials (AMAT): scanner what happened — AMAT traded cheaper than its industry peers on trailing P/E at 91/100 (setup 89). Why it printed: Trailing P/E 47.7 is below the semiconductor equipment peer median 56.6 (16% cheaper).; Market cap still sits above the peer median ($413.2B vs $412.4B).; VIX regime is low (15.01).; 21d relative strength vs SPY is 8.6%.. Invalidation: Multiple re-rates up to the peer median P/E, or a daily close back below SMA200; stop ~482.96.. Continuation of the 2026-10-06 alert, not a new one — this is print 2 of one run: the same call went out on 2026-10-06. Today is not a fresh signal; the setup was already true when the desk last printed it. The analog below measures the first session of a run, so its hit rate belongs to 2026-10-06, not to today. Same-setup analogs on 21 names (n=265, n_eff=84.8, 95% CI 47–68%) show a 58% 21-session net hit rate against a 59% base rate, average +3.0%, vs SPY +1.3%. The 95% interval includes 50%, so this is the desk's narrative setup rather than a demonstrated edge. LLM confirm at 91/100: Analogs and RSI both support a reset rather than a chase. Risk: Multiple re-rates up to the peer median P/E, or a daily close back below SMA200; stop ~482.96..

Apple Inc. (AAPL): scanner what happened — AAPL pulled back to its 20-day average inside an uptrend at 88/100 (setup 85). Why it printed: Price above SMA50 and SMA50 above SMA200 (bullish regime).; VIX regime is low (15.01).; RSI_14=57.7 is a reset, not a chase.; Close is 0.7% from SMA20 (pullback/tag).; 21d relative strength vs SPY is 5.0%.. Invalidation: Stop ~323.50 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50.. Continuation of the 2026-10-05 alert, not a new one — this is print 3 of one run: the same call has gone out twice since 2026-10-02 across 5 calendar days, most recently on 2026-10-05. Today is not a fresh signal; the setup was already true when the desk last printed it. The analog below measures the first session of a run, so its hit rate belongs to 2026-10-02, not to today. Same-setup analogs on 21 names (n=1022, n_eff=113.9, 95% CI 50–68%) show a 60% 21-session net hit rate against a 59% base rate, average +2.7%, vs SPY +1.5%. The 95% interval includes 50%, so this is the desk's narrative setup rather than a demonstrated edge. LLM confirm at 88/100: Analogs and RSI both support a reset rather than a chase. Risk: Stop ~323.50 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50..

Intel (INTC): scanner what happened — INTC pulled back to its 20-day average inside an uptrend at 88/100 (setup 85). Why it printed: Price above SMA50 and SMA50 above SMA200 (bullish regime).; VIX regime is low (15.01).; RSI_14=52.7 is a reset, not a chase.; Close is -0.2% from SMA20 (pullback/tag).; 21d relative strength vs SPY is 6.8%.. Invalidation: Stop ~101.37 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50.. Continuation of the 2026-10-06 alert, not a new one — this is print 2 of one run: the same call went out on 2026-10-06. Today is not a fresh signal; the setup was already true when the desk last printed it. The analog below measures the first session of a run, so its hit rate belongs to 2026-10-06, not to today. Same-setup analogs on 21 names (n=1022, n_eff=113.9, 95% CI 50–68%) show a 60% 21-session net hit rate against a 59% base rate, average +2.7%, vs SPY +1.5%. The 95% interval includes 50%, so this is the desk's narrative setup rather than a demonstrated edge. LLM confirm at 88/100: Analogs and RSI both support a reset rather than a chase. Risk: Stop ~101.37 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50..

Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL): scanner what happened — GOOGL traded cheaper than its industry peers on trailing P/E at 75/100 (setup 83). Why it printed: Trailing P/E 17.6 is below the interactive media peer median 17.9 (2% cheaper).; Market cap still sits above the peer median ($2.06T vs $9.9B).; Cap is more than 2× the peer median — quality/size filter.; VIX regime is low (15.01).; 21d relative strength vs SPY is 2.1%.. Invalidation: Multiple re-rates up to the peer median P/E, or a daily close back below SMA200; stop ~333.69.. Same-setup analogs on 21 names (n=265, n_eff=84.8, 95% CI 47–68%) show a 58% 21-session net hit rate against a 59% base rate, average +3.0%, vs SPY +1.3%. The 95% interval includes 50%, so this is the desk's narrative setup rather than a demonstrated edge. LLM confirm at 75/100: Analogs and RSI both support a reset rather than a chase. Risk: Multiple re-rates up to the peer median P/E, or a daily close back below SMA200; stop ~333.69..

Meta Platforms, Inc. (META): scanner what happened — META pulled back to its 20-day average inside an uptrend at 69/100 (setup 75). Why it printed: Price above SMA50 and SMA50 above SMA200 (bullish regime).; VIX regime is low (15.01).; RSI_14=57.6 is a reset, not a chase.; 21d relative strength vs SPY is 16.1%.; Recent volume dry-up — less chase, more coil.. Invalidation: Stop ~674.08 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50.. Same-setup analogs on 21 names (n=1022, n_eff=113.9, 95% CI 50–68%) show a 60% 21-session net hit rate against a 59% base rate, average +2.7%, vs SPY +1.5%. The 95% interval includes 50%, so this is the desk's narrative setup rather than a demonstrated edge. LLM confirm at 69/100: Analogs and RSI both support a reset rather than a chase. Risk: Stop ~674.08 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50..

ASML Holding (ASML): scanner what happened — ASML pulled back to its 20-day average inside an uptrend at 81/100 (setup 75). Why it printed: Price above SMA50 and SMA50 above SMA200 (bullish regime).; VIX regime is low (15.01).; RSI_14=55.7 is a reset, not a chase.; 21d relative strength vs SPY is 0.8%.; Relative volume 0.89x.. Invalidation: Stop ~1706.17 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50.. Same-setup analogs on 21 names (n=1022, n_eff=113.9, 95% CI 50–68%) show a 60% 21-session net hit rate against a 59% base rate, average +2.7%, vs SPY +1.5%. The 95% interval includes 50%, so this is the desk's narrative setup rather than a demonstrated edge. LLM confirm at 81/100: Analogs and RSI both support a reset rather than a chase. Risk: Stop ~1706.17 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50..

Qualcomm (QCOM): scanner what happened — QCOM pulled back to its 20-day average inside an uptrend at 81/100 (setup 75). Why it printed: Price above SMA50 and SMA50 above SMA200 (bullish regime).; VIX regime is low (15.01).; RSI_14=45.8 is a reset, not a chase.; 21d relative strength vs SPY is 0.3%.; Recent volume dry-up — less chase, more coil.. Invalidation: Stop ~161.81 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50.. Continuation of the 2026-10-05 alert, not a new one — this is print 3 of one run: the same call has gone out twice since 2026-10-02 across 5 calendar days, most recently on 2026-10-05. Today is not a fresh signal; the setup was already true when the desk last printed it. The analog below measures the first session of a run, so its hit rate belongs to 2026-10-02, not to today. Same-setup analogs on 21 names (n=1022, n_eff=113.9, 95% CI 50–68%) show a 60% 21-session net hit rate against a 59% base rate, average +2.7%, vs SPY +1.5%. The 95% interval includes 50%, so this is the desk's narrative setup rather than a demonstrated edge. LLM confirm at 81/100: Analogs and RSI both support a reset rather than a chase. Risk: Stop ~161.81 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50..

Lam Research (LRCX): scanner what happened — LRCX pulled back to its 20-day average inside an uptrend at 77/100 (setup 70). Why it printed: Price above SMA50 and SMA50 above SMA200 (bullish regime).; VIX regime is low (15.01).; RSI_14=56.8 is a reset, not a chase.; 21d relative strength vs SPY is 1.4%.. Invalidation: Stop ~302.21 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50.. Same-setup analogs on 21 names (n=1022, n_eff=113.9, 95% CI 50–68%) show a 60% 21-session net hit rate against a 59% base rate, average +2.7%, vs SPY +1.5%. The 95% interval includes 50%, so this is the desk's narrative setup rather than a demonstrated edge. LLM confirm at 77/100: Analogs and RSI both support a reset rather than a chase. Risk: Stop ~302.21 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50..

KLA (KLAC): scanner what happened — KLAC pulled back to its 20-day average inside an uptrend at 77/100 (setup 70). Why it printed: Price above SMA50 and SMA50 above SMA200 (bullish regime).; VIX regime is low (15.01).; RSI_14=56.0 is a reset, not a chase.; 21d relative strength vs SPY is 2.7%.. Invalidation: Stop ~181.38 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50.. Same-setup analogs on 21 names (n=1022, n_eff=113.9, 95% CI 50–68%) show a 60% 21-session net hit rate against a 59% base rate, average +2.7%, vs SPY +1.5%. The 95% interval includes 50%, so this is the desk's narrative setup rather than a demonstrated edge. LLM confirm at 77/100: Analogs and RSI both support a reset rather than a chase. Risk: Stop ~181.38 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50..

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD): scanner what happened — AMD closed near a 52-week high at 73/100 (setup 65). Why it printed: Within 1.9% of 52-week high.; Still in a bullish SMA regime.; Beating SPY by 26.2% over 21d.; VIX regime low.. Invalidation: Failed breakout if close back below prior 52w high and stop ~599.01.. Same-setup analogs on 21 names (n=741, n_eff=102.1, 95% CI 49–67%) show a 58% 21-session net hit rate against a 59% base rate, average +2.8%, vs SPY +1.8%. The 95% interval includes 50%, so this is the desk's narrative setup rather than a demonstrated edge. LLM wait at 62/100: RSI is stretched; the setup fired but this still looks like a chase. Risk: Failed breakout if close back below prior 52w high and stop ~599.01..

Texas Instruments (TXN): scanner what happened — TXN pulled back to its 20-day average inside an uptrend at 70/100 (setup 60). Why it printed: Price above SMA50 and SMA50 above SMA200 (bullish regime).; VIX regime is low (15.01).; 21d relative strength vs SPY is 10.1%.; Recent volume dry-up — less chase, more coil.. Invalidation: Stop ~272.75 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50.. Same-setup analogs on 21 names (n=1022, n_eff=113.9, 95% CI 50–68%) show a 60% 21-session net hit rate against a 59% base rate, average +2.7%, vs SPY +1.5%. The 95% interval includes 50%, so this is the desk's narrative setup rather than a demonstrated edge. LLM confirm at 70/100: Scanner structure and tape line up. This is still a research print, not a forecast. Risk: Stop ~272.75 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50..

Marvell Technology (MRVL): scanner what happened — MRVL pulled back to its 20-day average inside an uptrend at 70/100 (setup 60). Why it printed: Price above SMA50 and SMA50 above SMA200 (bullish regime).; VIX regime is low (15.01).; 21d relative strength vs SPY is 24.8%.; Relative volume 1.22x.. Invalidation: Stop ~256.40 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50.. Same-setup analogs on 21 names (n=1022, n_eff=113.9, 95% CI 50–68%) show a 60% 21-session net hit rate against a 59% base rate, average +2.7%, vs SPY +1.5%. The 95% interval includes 50%, so this is the desk's narrative setup rather than a demonstrated edge. LLM haircut at 64/100: RSI is firm, not a reset — haircut versus the scanner grade. Risk: Stop ~256.40 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50..

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT): scanner what happened — MSFT pulled back to its 20-day average inside an uptrend at 66/100 (setup 55). Why it printed: Price above SMA50 and SMA50 above SMA200 (bullish regime).; VIX regime is low (15.01).; 21d relative strength vs SPY is 5.8%.. Invalidation: Stop ~506.98 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50.. Continuation of the 2026-09-11 alert, not a new one — this is print 2 of one run: the same call went out on 2026-09-11. Today is not a fresh signal; the setup was already true when the desk last printed it. The analog below measures the first session of a run, so its hit rate belongs to 2026-09-11, not to today. Same-setup analogs on 21 names (n=1022, n_eff=113.9, 95% CI 50–68%) show a 60% 21-session net hit rate against a 59% base rate, average +2.7%, vs SPY +1.5%. The 95% interval includes 50%, so this is the desk's narrative setup rather than a demonstrated edge. LLM haircut at 60/100: RSI is firm, not a reset — haircut versus the scanner grade. Risk: Stop ~506.98 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50..

Broadcom (AVGO): scanner what happened — AVGO pulled back to its 20-day average inside an uptrend at 66/100 (setup 55). Why it printed: Price above SMA50 and SMA50 above SMA200 (bullish regime).; VIX regime is low (15.01).; 21d relative strength vs SPY is 0.7%.. Invalidation: Stop ~354.47 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50.. Same-setup analogs on 21 names (n=1022, n_eff=113.9, 95% CI 50–68%) show a 60% 21-session net hit rate against a 59% base rate, average +2.7%, vs SPY +1.5%. The 95% interval includes 50%, so this is the desk's narrative setup rather than a demonstrated edge. LLM confirm at 66/100: Analogs and RSI both support a reset rather than a chase. Risk: Stop ~354.47 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50..

Analog Devices (ADI): scanner what happened — ADI pulled back to its 20-day average inside an uptrend at 66/100 (setup 55). Why it printed: Price above SMA50 and SMA50 above SMA200 (bullish regime).; VIX regime is low (15.01).; 21d relative strength vs SPY is 11.4%.. Invalidation: Stop ~387.78 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50.. Same-setup analogs on 21 names (n=1022, n_eff=113.9, 95% CI 50–68%) show a 60% 21-session net hit rate against a 59% base rate, average +2.7%, vs SPY +1.5%. The 95% interval includes 50%, so this is the desk's narrative setup rather than a demonstrated edge. LLM haircut at 60/100: RSI is firm, not a reset — haircut versus the scanner grade. Risk: Stop ~387.78 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50..

Overall: mixed hybrid tape. Read each card's scanner grade, LLM stance, and hybrid conviction separately — not as one market call.

RESEARCH ONLY — not advice.

Scanner names what happened on the tape. The model grades that observation. Hybrid conviction is what publishes. The model cannot add a name that did not fire. Research only — not a timing call.

add reminders

Five add reminders

Live add reminders. Exclusive listing, strongest first. Not a named setup. Does not score. Now vs 52w is close versus the 252-session high. This-name median is that drawdown on this ticker's prior fires of the same gate.

Quiet today: K1 Weekly RSI (fear) · K2 Weekly RSI (elevated) · K3 Daily RSI (fear) · K4 Daily RSI (elevated) · K5 Daily RSI (calm) · K6 Weekly RSI (industry stress) · K7 Weekly RSI (industry elevated) · K8 Daily RSI (industry stress) · K9 Daily RSI (industry elevated) · K10 Daily RSI (industry calm) · K11 Weekly RSI · K12 Daily RSI.

Quiet watch: no desk name is approaching. VIX must already be 30.