Close print
2026-10-05
- VIX 15.52 low
- SPY 774.83
- 4 named setups
- Free teaser
Over the measured window — ten years of the local tape, 21 names, onsets spaced so one market phase counts once, and a 10 bps round trip — no named setup beat holding these companies. The unconditional 21-session up-rate was 58.67%. On buy-now versus wait through the next 21 sessions, every setup landed between −0.67% and +0.64% against a random session. One setup clears the publish gate: historic_drawdown at a 61.25% net hit rate on 352 onsets, and its 95% interval bottoms out at 50.33% — a third of a point above a coin. Read that as a gate it passed, not an edge it demonstrated. The desk publishes named setups as context — what happened on the tape — not as timing calls. Scheduled accumulation is the default the evidence supports. The 58.67% figure is not an expected future return: the universe is today's survivors chosen after the fact, which inflates the absolute up-rate.
Desk take
What we think of this print
Close print for 2026-10-05. VIX 15.52 (low) and SPY 774.83 set the tape. Hybrid desk: the scanner names the setup, the model grades that same print, and published conviction is the blend. The model cannot add a name that did not fire.
NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA): scanner what happened — NVDA traded cheaper than its industry peers on trailing P/E at 100/100 (setup 100). Why it printed: Trailing P/E 34.1 is below the semiconductors peer median 44.6 (24% cheaper).; Market cap still sits above the peer median ($5.77T vs $1.03T).; Cap is more than 2× the peer median — quality/size filter.; VIX regime is low (15.52).; 21d relative strength vs SPY is 4.4%.; Relative volume 1.16x.. Invalidation: Multiple re-rates up to the peer median P/E, or a daily close back below SMA200; stop ~227.05.. Continuation of the 2026-10-02 alert, not a new one — this is print 2 of one run: the same call went out on 2026-10-02. Today is not a fresh signal; the setup was already true when the desk last printed it. The analog below measures the first session of a run, so its hit rate belongs to 2026-10-02, not to today. Same-setup analogs on 21 names (n=171, n_eff=77.1, 95% CI 47–68%) show a 58% 21-session net hit rate against a 59% base rate, average +3.9%, vs SPY +2.1%. The 95% interval includes 50%, so this is the desk's narrative setup rather than a demonstrated edge. LLM haircut at 94/100: RSI is firm, not a reset — haircut versus the scanner grade. Risk: Multiple re-rates up to the peer median P/E, or a daily close back below SMA200; stop ~227.05..
Micron Technology (MU): scanner what happened — MU traded cheaper than its industry peers on trailing P/E at 94/100 (setup 93). Why it printed: Trailing P/E 14.1 is below the semiconductors peer median 75.7 (81% cheaper).; Market cap still sits above the peer median ($1.20T vs $822.8B).; VIX regime is low (15.52).; 21d relative strength vs SPY is 10.8%.. Invalidation: Multiple re-rates up to the peer median P/E, or a daily close back below SMA200; stop ~974.87.. Continuation of the 2026-10-02 alert, not a new one — this is print 2 of one run: the same call went out on 2026-10-02. Today is not a fresh signal; the setup was already true when the desk last printed it. The analog below measures the first session of a run, so its hit rate belongs to 2026-10-02, not to today. Same-setup analogs on 21 names (n=171, n_eff=77.1, 95% CI 47–68%) show a 58% 21-session net hit rate against a 59% base rate, average +3.9%, vs SPY +2.1%. The 95% interval includes 50%, so this is the desk's narrative setup rather than a demonstrated edge. LLM confirm at 94/100: Analogs and RSI both support a reset rather than a chase. Risk: Multiple re-rates up to the peer median P/E, or a daily close back below SMA200; stop ~974.87..
Apple Inc. (AAPL): scanner what happened — AAPL pulled back to its 20-day average inside an uptrend at 92/100 (setup 90). Why it printed: Price above SMA50 and SMA50 above SMA200 (bullish regime).; VIX regime is low (15.52).; RSI_14=53.8 is a reset, not a chase.; Close is 0.1% from SMA20 (pullback/tag).; 21d relative strength vs SPY is 1.2%.; Relative volume 0.82x.. Invalidation: Stop ~319.17 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50.. Continuation of the 2026-10-02 alert, not a new one — this is print 2 of one run: the same call went out on 2026-10-02. Today is not a fresh signal; the setup was already true when the desk last printed it. The analog below measures the first session of a run, so its hit rate belongs to 2026-10-02, not to today. Same-setup analogs on 21 names (n=1020, n_eff=113.6, 95% CI 51–68%) show a 60% 21-session net hit rate against a 59% base rate, average +2.7%, vs SPY +1.5%. The 95% interval includes 50%, so this is the desk's narrative setup rather than a demonstrated edge. LLM confirm at 92/100: Analogs and RSI both support a reset rather than a chase. Risk: Stop ~319.17 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50..
Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL): scanner what happened — GOOGL pulled back to its 20-day average inside an uptrend at 74/100 (setup 90). Why it printed: Price above SMA50 and SMA50 above SMA200 (bullish regime).; VIX regime is low (15.52).; RSI_14=52.4 is a reset, not a chase.; Close is 1.0% from SMA20 (pullback/tag).; 21d relative strength vs SPY is 1.0%.; Relative volume 0.93x.. Invalidation: Stop ~328.94 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50.. Same-setup analogs on 21 names (n=1020, n_eff=113.6, 95% CI 51–68%) show a 60% 21-session net hit rate against a 59% base rate, average +2.7%, vs SPY +1.5%. The 95% interval includes 50%, so this is the desk's narrative setup rather than a demonstrated edge. LLM confirm at 74/100: Analogs and RSI both support a reset rather than a chase. Risk: Stop ~328.94 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50..
Qualcomm (QCOM): scanner what happened — QCOM pulled back to its 20-day average inside an uptrend at 92/100 (setup 90). Why it printed: Price above SMA50 and SMA50 above SMA200 (bullish regime).; VIX regime is low (15.52).; RSI_14=48.9 is a reset, not a chase.; Close is -2.7% from SMA20 (pullback/tag).; 21d relative strength vs SPY is 7.0%.; Relative volume 0.80x.. Invalidation: Stop ~164.55 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50.. Continuation of the 2026-10-02 alert, not a new one — this is print 2 of one run: the same call went out on 2026-10-02. Today is not a fresh signal; the setup was already true when the desk last printed it. The analog below measures the first session of a run, so its hit rate belongs to 2026-10-02, not to today. Same-setup analogs on 21 names (n=1020, n_eff=113.6, 95% CI 51–68%) show a 60% 21-session net hit rate against a 59% base rate, average +2.7%, vs SPY +1.5%. The 95% interval includes 50%, so this is the desk's narrative setup rather than a demonstrated edge. LLM confirm at 92/100: Analogs and RSI both support a reset rather than a chase. Risk: Stop ~164.55 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50..
Intel (INTC): scanner what happened — INTC pulled back to its 20-day average inside an uptrend at 77/100 (setup 70). Why it printed: Price above SMA50 and SMA50 above SMA200 (bullish regime).; VIX regime is low (15.52).; RSI_14=56.5 is a reset, not a chase.; 21d relative strength vs SPY is 26.5%.. Invalidation: Stop ~104.21 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50.. Same-setup analogs on 21 names (n=1020, n_eff=113.6, 95% CI 51–68%) show a 60% 21-session net hit rate against a 59% base rate, average +2.7%, vs SPY +1.5%. The 95% interval includes 50%, so this is the desk's narrative setup rather than a demonstrated edge. LLM confirm at 77/100: Analogs and RSI both support a reset rather than a chase. Risk: Stop ~104.21 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50..
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD): scanner what happened — AMD closed near a 52-week high at 73/100 (setup 65). Why it printed: Within 2.1% of 52-week high.; Still in a bullish SMA regime.; Beating SPY by 38.3% over 21d.; VIX regime low.. Invalidation: Failed breakout if close back below prior 52w high and stop ~584.80.. Same-setup analogs on 21 names (n=741, n_eff=101.9, 95% CI 49–68%) show a 59% 21-session net hit rate against a 59% base rate, average +2.8%, vs SPY +1.8%. The 95% interval includes 50%, so this is the desk's narrative setup rather than a demonstrated edge. LLM haircut at 67/100: RSI is firm, not a reset — haircut versus the scanner grade. Risk: Failed breakout if close back below prior 52w high and stop ~584.80..
Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM): scanner what happened — TSM closed near a 52-week high at 73/100 (setup 65). Why it printed: Within 0.3% of 52-week high.; Still in a bullish SMA regime.; Beating SPY by 16.3% over 21d.; VIX regime low.. Invalidation: Failed breakout if close back below prior 52w high and stop ~464.00.. Same-setup analogs on 21 names (n=741, n_eff=101.9, 95% CI 49–68%) show a 59% 21-session net hit rate against a 59% base rate, average +2.8%, vs SPY +1.8%. The 95% interval includes 50%, so this is the desk's narrative setup rather than a demonstrated edge. LLM wait at 62/100: RSI is stretched; the setup fired but this still looks like a chase. Risk: Failed breakout if close back below prior 52w high and stop ~464.00..
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT): scanner what happened — MSFT pulled back to its 20-day average inside an uptrend at 70/100 (setup 60). Why it printed: Price above SMA50 and SMA50 above SMA200 (bullish regime).; VIX regime is low (15.52).; 21d relative strength vs SPY is 2.7%.; Relative volume 1.23x.. Invalidation: Stop ~501.55 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50.. Continuation of the 2026-09-11 alert, not a new one — this is print 2 of one run: the same call went out on 2026-09-11. Today is not a fresh signal; the setup was already true when the desk last printed it. The analog below measures the first session of a run, so its hit rate belongs to 2026-09-11, not to today. Same-setup analogs on 21 names (n=1020, n_eff=113.6, 95% CI 51–68%) show a 60% 21-session net hit rate against a 59% base rate, average +2.7%, vs SPY +1.5%. The 95% interval includes 50%, so this is the desk's narrative setup rather than a demonstrated edge. LLM haircut at 64/100: RSI is firm, not a reset — haircut versus the scanner grade. Risk: Stop ~501.55 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50..
ASML Holding (ASML): scanner what happened — ASML pulled back to its 20-day average inside an uptrend at 70/100 (setup 60). Why it printed: Price above SMA50 and SMA50 above SMA200 (bullish regime).; VIX regime is low (15.52).; 21d relative strength vs SPY is 12.8%.; Relative volume 1.01x.. Invalidation: Stop ~1761.14 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50.. Same-setup analogs on 21 names (n=1020, n_eff=113.6, 95% CI 51–68%) show a 60% 21-session net hit rate against a 59% base rate, average +2.7%, vs SPY +1.5%. The 95% interval includes 50%, so this is the desk's narrative setup rather than a demonstrated edge. LLM haircut at 64/100: RSI is firm, not a reset — haircut versus the scanner grade. Risk: Stop ~1761.14 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50..
KLA (KLAC): scanner what happened — KLAC pulled back to its 20-day average inside an uptrend at 70/100 (setup 60). Why it printed: Price above SMA50 and SMA50 above SMA200 (bullish regime).; VIX regime is low (15.52).; 21d relative strength vs SPY is 19.4%.; Relative volume 0.86x.. Invalidation: Stop ~191.62 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50.. Same-setup analogs on 21 names (n=1020, n_eff=113.6, 95% CI 51–68%) show a 60% 21-session net hit rate against a 59% base rate, average +2.7%, vs SPY +1.5%. The 95% interval includes 50%, so this is the desk's narrative setup rather than a demonstrated edge. LLM haircut at 64/100: RSI is firm, not a reset — haircut versus the scanner grade. Risk: Stop ~191.62 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50..
Applied Materials (AMAT): scanner what happened — AMAT pulled back to its 20-day average inside an uptrend at 66/100 (setup 55). Why it printed: Price above SMA50 and SMA50 above SMA200 (bullish regime).; VIX regime is low (15.52).; 21d relative strength vs SPY is 24.2%.. Invalidation: Stop ~504.26 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50.. Same-setup analogs on 21 names (n=1020, n_eff=113.6, 95% CI 51–68%) show a 60% 21-session net hit rate against a 59% base rate, average +2.7%, vs SPY +1.5%. The 95% interval includes 50%, so this is the desk's narrative setup rather than a demonstrated edge. LLM haircut at 60/100: RSI is firm, not a reset — haircut versus the scanner grade. Risk: Stop ~504.26 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50..
Lam Research (LRCX): scanner what happened — LRCX pulled back to its 20-day average inside an uptrend at 66/100 (setup 55). Why it printed: Price above SMA50 and SMA50 above SMA200 (bullish regime).; VIX regime is low (15.52).; 21d relative strength vs SPY is 17.9%.. Invalidation: Stop ~318.72 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50.. Same-setup analogs on 21 names (n=1020, n_eff=113.6, 95% CI 51–68%) show a 60% 21-session net hit rate against a 59% base rate, average +2.7%, vs SPY +1.5%. The 95% interval includes 50%, so this is the desk's narrative setup rather than a demonstrated edge. LLM haircut at 60/100: RSI is firm, not a reset — haircut versus the scanner grade. Risk: Stop ~318.72 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50..
Marvell Technology (MRVL): scanner what happened — MRVL pulled back to its 20-day average inside an uptrend at 66/100 (setup 55). Why it printed: Price above SMA50 and SMA50 above SMA200 (bullish regime).; VIX regime is low (15.52).; 21d relative strength vs SPY is 29.7%.. Invalidation: Stop ~245.43 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50.. Same-setup analogs on 21 names (n=1020, n_eff=113.6, 95% CI 51–68%) show a 60% 21-session net hit rate against a 59% base rate, average +2.7%, vs SPY +1.5%. The 95% interval includes 50%, so this is the desk's narrative setup rather than a demonstrated edge. LLM haircut at 60/100: RSI is firm, not a reset — haircut versus the scanner grade. Risk: Stop ~245.43 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50..
Overall: mixed hybrid tape. Read each card's scanner grade, LLM stance, and hybrid conviction separately — not as one market call.
RESEARCH ONLY — not advice.
Scanner names what happened on the tape. The model grades that observation. Hybrid conviction is what publishes. The model cannot add a name that did not fire. Research only — not a timing call.
add reminders
Five add reminders
Live add reminders. Exclusive listing, strongest first. Not a named setup. Does not score. Now vs 52w is close versus the 252-session high. This-name median is that drawdown on this ticker's prior fires of the same gate.
Quiet today: K1 Weekly RSI (fear) · K2 Weekly RSI (elevated) · K3 Daily RSI (fear) · K4 Daily RSI (elevated) · K5 Daily RSI (calm) · K6 Weekly RSI (industry stress) · K7 Weekly RSI (industry elevated) · K8 Daily RSI (industry stress) · K9 Daily RSI (industry elevated) · K10 Daily RSI (industry calm) · K11 Weekly RSI · K12 Daily RSI.
Quiet watch: no desk name is approaching. VIX must already be 30.
NVDA NVDA traded cheaper than its industry peers on trailing P/E
Hybrid 97/100 · buy · named setup cheap vs industry
Scanner 100/100 LLM haircut 94/100
RSI is firm, not a reset — haircut versus the scanner grade.
Multiple re-rates up to the peer median P/E, or a daily close back below SMA200; stop ~227.05.
- Close
- 238.90
- vs SMA20
- +6.6%
- RSI 14
- 66.9
- Stop
- 227.05
Pattern readings
| Pattern | Current | Threshold | vs | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Historic drawdown | 0.0% | >= top-3 avg 53.3% | 0.00x | below |
| 20d range high | 238.90 | > 237.88 | +0.4% | met |
| 20d range low | 238.90 | < 208.93 | +14.3% | below |
| Relative volume | 1.16x | >= 1.50x expansion / <= 0.70x dry-up | 0.77x vs expansion | below |
| RSI_14 | 66.9 | oversold < 30 · reset 35-58 · overbought > 70 | mid 30-70 | inside |
| MACD vs signal | 4.173 vs 2.964 | cross up: line > signal after line <= signal | spread 1.209 | above |
| Bollinger squeeze | width 12.382 | <= 20%ile cutoff 11.221 | 1.10x cutoff | below |
| vs SMA20 (pullback tag) | +6.6% | -4.0% to +1.2% | +6.6% | outside |
| vs 52w high (breakout) | -0.5% | >= -3.0% (within 3% of high) | -0.5% | met |
| SMA50 vs SMA200 | 218.92 vs 201.02 | golden: 50 > 200 · death: 50 < 200 | +8.9% | above |
| VIX | 15.52 (low) | elevated >= 20 · stress >= 30 | 15.52 | low |
Similar-setup analog
cheap vs industry onset · 171 samples · last 2300 sessions (publish window). What happened on similar days — not a forecast.
| Horizon | n | Hit rate | Base rate | Avg | vs SPY | Beat SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5d | 170 | 57% | 55% | +1.2% | +0.8% | 58% |
| 10d | 170 | 58% | 56% | +2.3% | +1.4% | 55% |
| 21d | 170 | 58% | 59% | +3.9% | +2.1% | 54% |
| 63d | 169 | 64% | 63% | +11.9% | +7.7% | 59% |
| 126d | 163 | 66% | 68% | +20.2% | +12.9% | 60% |
Hit rate is shown next to the 21-session base rate so the comparison is unavoidable. The ~60% absolute up-rate is not an expected future return: the universe is today's winners chosen after the fact. Beat SPY is how often one trade finished ahead of the index; the SPY columns carry no trading cost because buying the index pays the same round trip.
3 more names behind the desk pass
- MU cheap vs industry · 94/100
- AAPL pullback in uptrend · 92/100
- QCOM pullback in uptrend · 92/100
Print board
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